In the Wizard of Oz, a satire of the 1930’s Great American Plains dustbowl disaster, Dorothy is swept away from Kansas to the wonderful Emerald City. The Emerald City represents New York City an escape from the nightmare. In the fairy tale Dorothy’s homesick wish is to go home to the happy times on the plains of Kansas before the dustbowl disaster hits. Her wish is granted by the Wizard of Oz and the nightmare ends.
In reality there was no happy ending. ‘The Plow that Broke the Plains’ by Pere Lorentz, is a documentary commissioned by the government to capture the agricultural holocaust. The 25 minute documentary has been heralded as one of the greatest films made. Another classic film from this period is John Steinbeck’s ‘The Grapes of Wrath’, which follows the humanitarian disaster by following the Joad family’s misfortune from share croppers to refugees. The dust bowl disaster caused the largest migration in American history.
The ‘dust bowl’ disaster was entirely man-made with poor agricultural practices leading to the erosion of top soil and drought conditions exacerbated the disaster. The Great Depression from 1929 to 1933 is inextricably entwined with this period in time and was shortly followed by the Second World War.
Are we experiencing another man made shock to the wheat market? Canada the third largest exporter of wheat saw a 40% fall in production in 2021. Global warming is leading to parched soils and record temperatures giving way to drought conditions. Canada is usually the third largest global exporter with 26m tonnes of wheat, just behind the US in second. The global leader of wheat exports is Russia with 37m tonnes.
In strong contrast to Canada, Ukraine’s wheat production of 40m tonnes for 2021 was a bumper crop. Ukranian wheat exports are shipped through the Black Sea from Ports in Odessa and Mariupol, largely to the Middle East.
Crimea borders the Black Sea and Russia’s strategy looks to be securing a land corridor between Crimea and Russia. Geographically the city of Mariupol stands between Russia and the Crimean peninsula. Taking this port city is a strategic win for Russia, if Mariupol is seized, Russia will have full control of more than 80% of Ukraine’s Black Sea coastline. Mariupol has long been a strategically important port with deep berths, it is the biggest port in the Azov Sea region and in normal times is a key export hub for Ukraine’s steel, coal and corn.
Could we see history repeating itself, with another man-made agricultural disaster leading to economic chaos and global conflict? How important is good agricultural land going to be in times of climate change?
The argument against this is that Commercial farming is widespread, and any deficit of wheat from Russia, Ukraine and Canada can be filled by improved GMO Crops that can withstand the changing climate. Or is this a Wizard of Oz fantasy ending to another man made disaster?
Rebel Economics 