“War is over… if you want it” – John Lennon

‘War is over… if you want it’. John Lennon

“War is a failure of diplomacy”. John Dingell

“War is always a failure.  It means that we have failed in diplomacy and we’ve failed in talking to one another”. Martin Firrell.

This is a blog on economics, but the current war between Ukraine and Russia is causing huge seismic events from a humanitarian aspect that dwarf any economic concerns. The human catastrophe that we are witnessing live is horrific and Rebel Economics view is that peace talks should be the top priority.

Monetary impacts such as sanctions and their effects, inflation in commodities and increased global risk are of little importance compared to the urgent need to broker peace and prevent further humanitarian suffering. Diplomacy should be used to broker a deal between Russian and Ukraine and avoid a potential escalation in terms of further countries joining the conflict and the use of nuclear and chemical weapons.

Is diplomacy dead? 

There has been a glimmer of hope this week with a meeting between Russian and Ukranian foreign ministers.  Ukranian officials have suggested that an alternative to Ukraine joining NATO could be a neutral status with security guarantees. Ukraine joining NATO, a bordering country to Russia, has been a red line for Moscow for years. President Zelensky has told ABC News this week “regarding joining NATO, I have cooled down”.

Sergei Lavrov, Russian foreign minister, said: ‘We want Ukraine to stay neutral… we are ready to talk about security guarantees for the Ukranian state along with security guarantees for the European state and of course for the security of Russia’.

Switzerland and Finland both have an armed neutrality, and have not joined larger pacts. However, Russia has two main goals, ‘de-nazification’ of Ukraine (regime change) and demilitarisation of Ukraine.  This is a starting point for peace talks to occur.  The fear that this crisis can escalate to other countries, in a war of democratic countries vs communist countries is palpable.  The fear that nuclear can be used, should bring all parties to the negotiating table.

Germany’s former chancellor Gerhard Schroeder has had an intense meeting with Putin in an effort to bring about a peace bid.  As an ex chancellor he has no government mandate, but I applaud Schroeder for meeting with Putin in a bid to broker peace.

The German government has not authorised Schroder’s role, but after initial criticism from his own centre left Social Democratic Party, the SPD Chairman Lars Klingbeil expressed hope that the former chancellor would succeed.  The one time German leader believes his relationship with Putin and lack of a formal mandate allows him to play a unique role as an elder statesman outside normal diplomatic channels.

Germany, of all countries, knows the cost of war. They do not want to engage in a war or deliver weapons to Ukraine. Germany wants a diplomatic solution. No one is a winner in war, there is only death and trauma. Only peace is the answer.